The pureplay trade is an interesting one. That’s why I am invested in Santacruz, they are about 60% Silver now and have crashed with the price. But that will increase to about 80% soon and the thesis(partly) is that the valuation gap will close.
Ecora Royalties (LSE/TSX: ECOR) immediately came to my mind. Sold Narrabri thermal in 2021, Kestrel coking coal is running off on its own, and the portfolio is now copper, cobalt, uranium and rare earths. Recent sell-side has it near 0.8x NAV and ~17x 2026E EBITDA against royalty peers at 1.9x and 35x.
What makes it a useful data point for your S32 case is that it's already run the experiment on your Risk #2. Name change from Anglo Pacific in 2022, second name change to Ecora Royalties this January, TSX and OTCQX lines on top of London. The discount survived all of it. Makes me think us and index listing is a huge factor.
Glencore sell Kazzinc (wildly reported) and close the deal with US on DRC Assets will clean up some of the jurisdiction issues with the base metals Assets. Hard to get a “clean” multiple unless they spin out coal and open the hood on marketing tho I reckon.. and not sure they are willing to do either. Is certainly cheap.
The pureplay trade is an interesting one. That’s why I am invested in Santacruz, they are about 60% Silver now and have crashed with the price. But that will increase to about 80% soon and the thesis(partly) is that the valuation gap will close.
Great piece, thanks for sharing your thoughts!
https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-03125347-6A1340036?utm_source=www.moneyofmine.com&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_campaign=ramelius-ups-reserves-79-westgold-eyes-meekatharra-growth&_bhlid=94daeb78ac8a980549587c24a3deb0d194d6fb3b
South32 lifted the Sierra Gorda ore reserve 61% to 1,100Mt at 0.39% Cu, 0.016% Mo and 0.06 g/t Au, extending reserve life ~5 years to 2045
Ecora Royalties (LSE/TSX: ECOR) immediately came to my mind. Sold Narrabri thermal in 2021, Kestrel coking coal is running off on its own, and the portfolio is now copper, cobalt, uranium and rare earths. Recent sell-side has it near 0.8x NAV and ~17x 2026E EBITDA against royalty peers at 1.9x and 35x.
What makes it a useful data point for your S32 case is that it's already run the experiment on your Risk #2. Name change from Anglo Pacific in 2022, second name change to Ecora Royalties this January, TSX and OTCQX lines on top of London. The discount survived all of it. Makes me think us and index listing is a huge factor.
Agreed! I actually wrote about this one straight after this note…
. https://substack.com/@theresourcespeculator/note/p-210710668?r=1z4jo6&utm_medium=ios&utm_source=notes-share-action
Glencore? Punished last year when the coal price was down
Glencore sell Kazzinc (wildly reported) and close the deal with US on DRC Assets will clean up some of the jurisdiction issues with the base metals Assets. Hard to get a “clean” multiple unless they spin out coal and open the hood on marketing tho I reckon.. and not sure they are willing to do either. Is certainly cheap.